Why last year's numbers can't tell you what to stock this year, and what UK eCommerce brands can read instead.
In short
- 78% of big US retail buyers use AI to plan their buying, but only 28% of those users say it improved demand forecasting.
- Peak trading changes fast, so a forecast built on last year can miss this year's shopper.
- The edge isn't a better forecast. It's ordering what your data supports now and keeping the cash to reorder whatever takes off.
- UK eCommerce brands can read 4 live signals: sales, inventory and fulfilment, accounting and banking.
Black Friday falls on 27 November this year. That leaves under 8 weeks to land the stock you'll sell through peak, and for most brands the final orders go to suppliers this month. Whatever you order now is, in practice, what you'll be selling in December.
It's the time of year when software vendors promise that a forecasting model will tell you exactly what to buy. So it's worth looking at what happened when some of the biggest retailers in the world tried it.
In Deloitte's 2025 retail holiday buyer survey, 78% of buyers said they use AI-enabled tools to plan their buying. These are buyers at US retailers with $5bn or more in annual revenue, with budgets most brands will never see. Yet of the buyers using AI, only 28% said it had improved their demand forecasting. Far more reported gains in supply chain management (46%), pricing optimisation (46%) and assortment (44%) than in predicting what shoppers would actually buy.
The survey doesn't say why forecasting lagged. But one likely reason is familiar to anyone who has planned a peak: most forecasting starts from last year, and this year's shopper isn't last year's shopper.
Why demand forecasting for eCommerce struggles at peak
A forecasting model learns from history. It sees what sold last November, adjusts for growth and seasonality, and projects forward. That works when the year ahead looks like the year behind. Peak trading rarely does.
The Deloitte survey shows how much moved in a single year:
- Shoppers pulled back. 64% of buyers said consumers had cut spending in their category in the previous 6 months, up from 49% a year earlier.
- Buying habits changed shape. 76% expected shoppers to make discretionary purchases only during promotions. That moves demand into a few days around Black Friday instead of spreading it across the quarter.
- Even the buying calendar moved. More than half of holiday orders were placed by the end of May, nearly 2 months earlier than the year before, as retailers tried to get ahead of tariff changes.
None of that was in the 2024 data. A model trained on it had nothing to learn from.
UK shoppers are just as hard to read. PwC found interest in Black Friday fell to 46% of adults last year, from 53% in 2024. Barclays found the opposite: 43% planned to shop the sales, up from 37%. Both agreed that those who did take part planned to spend more each, and Barclays found 69% of them planned to shop online. When two of the biggest consumer surveys can't agree on which way demand is moving, a straight line from your own history won't settle it either.
For your brand, the list of things that shift between peaks is just as long. A viral product, a competitor's clearance sale, a change to delivery costs, a wet November, a new marketplace fee. History can tell you the shape of a normal year. It can't tell you whether this is one.
So the answer isn't a better forecast. It's placing the order your data supports now, and keeping the cash to reorder whatever actually takes off.
Black Friday stock planning: read live data, not just history
A large retailer's buyer sits several steps away from the customer. Sales data passes through stores, regions and reporting cycles before it reaches them. A founder-led eCommerce brand can see what happened yesterday, by SKU, by channel, by postcode.
That's a real advantage, but only if you look at the right things. We find the clearest picture comes from 4 signals read together:
| Signal | What to look at now | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | Sell-through over the last 6–8 weeks by SKU, compared with the same weeks last year | Which products are gaining or losing pace before peak starts |
| Inventory and fulfilment | Weeks of cover per SKU, inbound lead times, stockouts and backorders, 3PL pick volumes | Where you'll run out first, and how late you can still reorder |
| Accounting | Gross margin by SKU after shipping, returns and marketplace fees | Which products are worth putting your stock budget behind |
| Banking | Cash in the bank, payout delays from Shopify, Amazon and PayPal, VAT and supplier payments due | How much cash you can commit without leaving yourself short in December |
Each signal on its own can mislead. Strong sales on a low-margin SKU can drain cash. Healthy stock levels can hide slowing demand. A full bank balance can disappear once a VAT bill and a supplier deposit land in the same week.
That's why CapRelease reads all 4 together. Combined, they show what's happening in your business now, not what happened 12 months ago. (For the background on why stock deserves this attention, see Inventory isn't dead weight.)
How we work alongside your 3PL
In peak, the risk isn't missing a signal. It's speed. By the time a monthly report shows a bestseller running low, the reorder window may already have closed.
That's why CapRelease works with 3PL warehouses through our 3PL partner programme. When your 3PL is a partner, your inventory and fulfilment data can come to us from the warehouse, rather than waiting for month-end reports.
When a product starts selling faster than expected, it usually shows up in fulfilment data first. If your data supports a bigger order, talk to us about reviewing your facility while there's still time to reorder, rather than waiting for December's revenue to land. Funds are disbursed to your bank account, so you pay your supplier on your own terms. You keep making the buying decisions. Our job is to help make sure the cash is there when your data says buy more.
How to fund inventory for Black Friday and Christmas without draining your cash
Behind every Black Friday and Christmas is stock that pays back months after it was bought. Deposits go out weeks before shipping, balances fall due when the goods leave the factory, and the revenue arrives across November and December, often with a payout delay on top. If that stock is bought out of your bank balance, the working capital you need for everything else during peak goes with it.
And peak needs plenty of everything else. Ad costs rise as competition for attention peaks. Temporary staff, packaging and 3PL surcharges all land at once. For brands on a calendar VAT quarter, the July to September return and payment are due on 7 November. Then there's the bestseller that starts selling out in early November, while there's still just time to reorder stock that lands before Christmas.
Here's an illustrative example, not a real customer. Take a UK consumer electronics brand selling headphones, chargers and smart home accessories. It turns over £1.5m a year and has £120k in the bank. Its signals point to an £80k peak stock order, with deposits due to its manufacturer well before the stock lands.
| Pay for stock from cash | Fund the stock | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash after the £80k stock order | £40k | £120k |
| November ad spend | −£30k | −£30k |
| VAT return due 7 November | −£28k | −£28k |
| Peak staff, packaging and 3PL surcharges | −£12k | −£12k |
| Cash before peak payouts land | −£30k | £50k |
Illustrative only. The funded column excludes the fixed fee, which is agreed upfront.
Same stock, same Christmas. Paying from cash leaves the brand £30k short before its peak takings arrive, with no room to reorder its bestseller. Funding the stock leaves £50k of headroom and the reorder placed in time.
And when that bestseller needs a £20k reorder in early November:
| Pay for stock from cash | Fund the stock | |
|---|---|---|
| £20k reorder of a bestseller in early November | Waits for revenue, likely too late for Christmas | Placed, with £30k still in the bank |
| Cost of funding | None | One fixed fee, agreed upfront |
| How the stock is paid for | Up front, before it sells | Repaid from the revenue it earns |
Funding isn't free. The question is whether one fixed fee costs less than a missed reorder, a late VAT payment or ad spend cut in the busiest weeks of the year.
That's the idea behind inventory finance: funding stock rather than paying for it from the bank. With CapRelease, you pay one fixed fee, agreed upfront, so the total cost doesn't change. What flexes is the pace: repayments can be set as a percentage of daily revenue, so they rise when peak sales are strong and ease off in a quiet January. The stock is repaid by the sales it brings in, and your own cash stays free for the costs you can't predict.
Read what's happening now, then back it
AI tools are useful for many parts of buying, from pricing to supply chain planning. But even the largest retailers say they've seen fewer gains in demand forecasting. Your advantage is closer to home: live signals you can read today, the freedom to act on them quickly, and a funder that reads them alongside you.
Order what your data supports, keep the cash to reorder what takes off, and leave the forecasting to the people with $5bn budgets.
Frequently asked questions
When should I order stock for Black Friday?
For stock made overseas, many UK brands place final peak orders in September or October, so it lands before Black Friday on 27 November. Work back from your supplier's lead time plus shipping and 3PL receiving time. Keep budget for one early-November reorder of whatever sells fastest.
Can AI forecast demand for an eCommerce brand?
AI can help, but it learns from history. In Deloitte's 2025 survey of large US retailers, only 28% of buyers using AI said it improved demand forecasting. For peak season, recent sell-through, weeks of cover and margin by SKU usually tell you more than last year's totals.
How do I fund inventory for Christmas without running out of cash?
Fund the stock instead of paying for it from your bank balance. Inventory finance covers the supplier deposit and balance, then is repaid from the sales the stock brings in. That keeps cash free for ad spend, VAT and staff during peak.
What is inventory finance in the UK?
Inventory finance is funding used to buy stock, repaid as that stock sells. With CapRelease, UK eCommerce brands trading for 12 months or more can access £20k–£1m in one facility covering inventory and revenue, with one fixed fee, no equity and no personal guarantees.
How quickly can I get funding before peak?
CapRelease makes decisions in 24–72 hours, and funds are disbursed to your own bank account. Applying in October leaves time to fund a final top-up or an early-November reorder before peak.
Growth capital from £20k–£1m
CapRelease provides a single facility for inventory and revenue, sized on your live sales, inventory, accounting and banking data. One fixed fee, agreed upfront. No equity and no personal guarantees. Decisions in 24–72 hours, with funds disbursed to your bank account. Available to UK eCommerce brands trading for 12 months or more.
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Sources
- Deloitte, 2025 retail holiday buyer survey. Survey of 50 US retail buyers and merchandising managers, conducted 20 May to 4 June 2025. 96% of respondents work at retailers with $5bn or more in annual revenue. AI improvement figures are among respondents using AI.
- PwC UK, Black Friday 2025 spending research. 2,000 UK adults, 31 October to 4 November 2025.
- Barclays Consumer Spend research, Black Friday 2025, via Retail Times, 25 November 2025.
